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Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Trading Forex?

By Kris Deaney

The Forex market is filled with opportunities. It is also a potentially dangerous market to trade, unless you have two things sorted out first.

The first is a robust trading strategy, that can be carried out with discipline. The second is a reliable Forex broker. The purpose of this article is to talk about the aspects required in a very reliable Forex broker, thus individuals will be able to ensure they join up to one.

Firstly, a Forex broker should be able to give instant execution of trades. It sounds obvious maybe, but a lot of brokers out there do not do that, and this leads to what's known as slippage. It means that that profit is lost.

1 of the problems is that the Forex trade is not regulated by a governing organization, mostly since it is not traded on a regulated exchange, as it is far too huge a industry. It means that brokers can hypothetically act how they like and sadly for a number of them it means they work against the trader. These companies ought to be avoided at all costs.

Then, traders should only be trading with firms that operate on a low spread. The spread is basically the difference between the bid and the ask price or more simply, what it will be purchased or sold for at a specific time. It can be looked at as the cost to put on a trade. The higher the average pip spread, the greater the prices to trade.

Typically traders do not consider the costs of the spread when they trade, however, they do this at their own risk, because it can have a massive impact on gains and loss, especially when a trader is putting on regular trades.

Also, a brokerage ought to have a full set of analysis tools offered to be used by each trader. This means that they can trade as all the traders with a brokerage company, or bank will. Also, they should provide up to the minute financial news, so that traders are aware of and can trade, depending on global events and economic data.

They should additionally provide the opportunity for a teaching program, especially if traders are new, so that they can build up a full understanding and develop their trading methods and their expertise.

This can often come with them having virtual accounts, thus traders will trade with virtual cash, while not having the total pressure of an actual cash setting, at least at the start. Be aware however that trading with virtual money is completely different psychologically from trading with proper cash and at some point each trader has to to learn to cope with the added stress of a real money environment. - 23221

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Markets And Holidays

By Ahmad Hassam

October is the month in which the most infamous crashes historically took place. The party starts in December and continues in the early part of January with some hangover effect. So what is the January Effect?

New Year is the end of a year and the beginning of a new year. This is what makes the January Effect so special. There is usually a rally in the stocks in the first few days of January. There are various reasons behind the rally. Most of the people are trying to pay their taxes at that time of the year. The companies are trying to show a good performance at the end of the year by cleaning their balance sheets. The January Effect can be quite a rally but much depends on the strength of the economy, how good December was and is there any catalyst to move the markets. There is usually a significant rally in the early part of January that actually sets the tone for the rest of the month and sometimes for the rest of the year. New Year is party time. People are in exuberant mood. Everyone wants to forget the past year and start the coming year with high hopes and good expectations. This is what is so special about the January Effect. So what is this January Effect? January Effect actually starts in the mid December and tends to favor small stocks. The most profitable period as measured statistically has been found to start from December 31st and end around February 28th with an average rate of return of 6.6% on smaller stocks.

Now January Effect may happen or may not happen but the turn of the month that is the last day of the month and first five days of the next month form a very good seasonal pattern. Now, you must know this fact that the January Effect is not guaranteed every year. The best example is the year 2007 when the market became bearish and didnt start to look to bottom out until March 2008.

Turn of the month is a very good seasonal pattern that actually holds up more often than not. So if you buy stocks at the last day of the month and hold them for the first five days for the next month, chances are you are going to make some profit. This can be a good swing trading strategy. At the end of the fifth day you move your money back into the money market funds.

This system works because the pension funds tend to put new money to work during the holidays and the overall tendency of the market to rise improves. You can do the same on the holidays. Move your money in on the day before the holiday and sell it on the day after the holiday.

Holidays are good for your mood. Everyone is happy to escape the drudgery of their daily routines. People want no worries in the holidays. People start to feel happy when the holidays approach and buy stocks before they run off to celebrate Christmas, the fourth of July, the Labor Day and so on. After the party the reality sets in the stocks are usually sold off. The holidays and those times when people traditionally take vacations often lead to higher prices. Fewer traders lead to lower trading volume which in turn tends to exaggerate price moves.

The three days before the New Year Eve and the first three days trading days after the New Year are your best holiday bet for making money. Thats because these days fall within the most bullish time period of the year, winter! - 23221

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Forex Trading On Automatic Mode

By Danielle Deray



Discipline according to the Forex experts is a vital part of the trading business. People who are disciplined still does what they shall do despite the fluctuating trends of the market. The birth of automated forex trading system has changed the face of the trading industry. For savvy traders, this automated program could give you great benefits.

Newbie Forex traders, be warned that majority of the online trading systems are useless and junk. These methods aren't tested on the real world yet. Instead, the tactics are tested on a simulated environment and packed with hyped marketing strategies. Utilizing this junk trading methods will put your investment to waste.

There are simple trading systems offered online which can yield higher returns when used properly and consistently. The simpler the automated trading system, the easier it is to use; you see, complicated systems do not guarantee success at all times so be very careful when choosing the appropriate Forex system.

For example, if you think that a certain currency is going to maintain four weeks high standing, buy it. If you have a low-standing currency, you can sell it before the price goes down further. This system is also called breakout wherein all your moves within the Forex market is based on the highs and lows. Soon, you will be able to penetrate the market's big trends.

Big trends usually last for several weeks, months, or even years. Take a look at the Forex chart and study it. The whole system is automatic and the rules are quite objective. This system is also known as a Forex robot and it can operate fifteen minutes everyday. The creator of this Forex robot was Richard Donchian, a Forex trader.

People who are inclined to make use of simple programs would greatly benefit from this Forex robot. On the other hand, traders who seek for complicated system feels that this system is lacking. Thus, they search for a program that would satisfy their preferences. Actually, Forex robots aren't all fussy, it can be helpful as you determine which are the top and bottom picks.

Individuals who became rich due to their success with Forex trading are those who spend enough effort and time to in their decision making. Moreover, they allow the system to work on its own, avoiding the situation of rushing things. Complicated and expensive system does not ensure your profits. Hence don't believe the popular notion that they are more efficient.

Do a little research and observe the market. If you think the Forex robot fills your need as well as the market's need, feel free to try it. The robot is logical, simple and consistent, making it easier for you to work. There are automated systems that you can download for free if you want to check it out. To find the proper system, do a background check. Read the ratings and reviews from the current and past users of the Forex system.

Our era is a far cry from the world we have years ago. A lot of our manual works have been replaced by automated machines. So, if you want an automated system, you may replace the effort and time you spend with this Forex robot. It is a method that works in the long run, allowing you to save great money. To know more about Richar Donchian, the author of this sytem, you may simple search his work online. - 23221

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Examining Draw Downs When Selecting A Forex Signal Provider

By Tom K Kearns

When you're looking for a third party signal provider, one of the first things that you need to look at is their maximum draw down. This is the maximum amount lost between an extreme peak and an extreme valley. This number also includes open positions but does not take into account margin required to keep you out of a margin call. Inevitably the question comes: How much draw down is too much? The answer is like many trading questions. It depends. There are a lot of factors that come into play when answering this question. Obviously a person with a 50k account could tolerate more draw down than a person with a 5k account. Another person with a 1k account could withstand even less. So aside from your account size, what else do we have to think about?

Another thing to look at aside from the actual number is how that number came to be. If a trader has a draw down that is too high for you to tolerate but otherwise seems to trade well, you should look at how many positions he opens at a time. If that trader opens 5 trades on any given pair at a time you can instantly cut their historical draw down by 5. Limiting the # of open trades for a trader could drastically reduce the overall draw down.

Sometimes you will find a trader who has a great track record aside from one major meltdown where a single trade ran out of control for days unchecked. This will produce an abnormal draw down in relation to the trader's real ability. He may be the kind of guy who can't recognize when a trade has no chance of coming back to even. He may also be a guy who lost his internet connection at an inopportune time once or twice. Either way you can keep this trader from doing this to your account by setting your own stops for him. Just make sure that you only stop out his trades that are well out of a realistic trading range.

Now that we're half way down the page lets revisit our original question. After doing anything and everything you can to limit draw down, I would say that anything over 35% of your entire account equity is just too much. Once you start to get into a situation where you are losing 50% or more it is very tough to ever recover without taking extreme risks. If you lose 50% you need to make 100% just to get back to even.

Another item to look for when considering draw down is the history (or lack of history) available on the trader(s) you are researching. You want to uncover as much history as possible so you may determine how he handles himself when things get rough, because they are sure to do so.

Also remember to constantly monitor your traders on both a live and demo account. If their draw down gets out of hand it may be time to reevaluate or completely remove that trader from your portfolio. - 23221

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Point and Figure Trading (Part II)

By Ahmad Hassam

The second most important variable for a point and figure chart is the reversal threshold. The most common amount of reversal threshold is three boxes or three points. A new column is only added when a reversal in an existing column exceeds the reversal threshold.

If the box size is set at 10 pips and the reversal amount is set at three boxes, the reversal amount in pips is 30 pips. So in case of a rising X column, price would need to turn back by at least 30 pips before a new O column would be added.

By only focusing on the pure price action, a point and figure chart reduces the unrelated noise in the price action. These two variables the box size and the reversal threshold make the point and figure chart so effective at representing only the most major market moves disregarding all minor fluctuations known as noise. The significance of these two variables, the box size and the reversal threshold should be clearly understood.

The point and figure charts are excellent indicators of both trend and support/resistance. Since point and figure charts outline support and resistance so well, one of the best trading strategies in most common use with the point and figure charts is breakout trading.

Now there is a notable distinction between the bar and candlestick charts and the point and figure charts in the interpretation of double and triple tops and bottoms. In bar and candlestick charts, a double top is a potential bearish reversal signal.

Are you familiar with the chart patterns like the double and triple tops and bottoms? They are taken as important reversal signals in the trend. However, a double top is a resistance point where traders should be looking for a bullish break to the upside on the point and figure charts. The same difference holds for the double bottoms as well as triple tops and bottoms.

The main method of trading trendlines and pattern on the point and figure charts is through breakouts like the horizontal support and resistances levels on these charts. Charts patterns like triangles are prevalent as well. Point and figure charts also have their own versions of diagonal trend lines which are drawn at 45 degrees.

Price action is the most important aspect of technical trading. Point and figure charts give a very clear view of the market movements. The point and figure charts focus exclusively on the price action.

Point and figure charts had originated in the'th century. It is because of this clarity in viewing and interpreting the price movements that the point and figure charts have withstood the test of time and are still popular with traders today as an increasing relevant analytical tool for forex traders.

Point and figure charts excel at representing clear evidence of such important technical characteristics as trend, support/resistance and breakout without the extraneous elements to clutter the picture.

Other data that is readily available on the bar and candlestick charts like time, period opens/closes are generally excluded on the point and figure charts. This leaves only the uncluttered purity of price action. Some may characterize point and figure trading as based upon pure price action. - 23221

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