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Monday, November 30, 2009

Crude Oil Futures (Part I)

By Ahmad Hassam

One thing should be clear to you. Energy markets will be a major focal point in the global financial makers and the global economy for many years to come. The key to understanding energy trading is to understand oil, natural gas, gasoline and heating oil futures.

NYMEX trades futures and options contracts for crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, coal, electricity and propane. NYMEX is also home to trading in metals. Trading in energy futures is centralized at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange.

Next to interest rates, energy and especially oil is the center of the universe not only for the industry but also for the financial markets. The relationship between energy and interest rates is very important to understand. This relationship ties together the two most important aspects of the global economy: energy (the fuel for growth) and the interest rates (the catalyst that powers borrowed money to do things).

One of the most important variables for any economy is the interest rates. Very high interest rates can make the economy come to a screeching halt as most businesses won't be able to afford high interest rate loans. On the other extreme, very low interest rates can make inflation too high in the economy. Now there is a relationship between the oil prices and the interest rates. The relationship between energy and interest rates is very important to understand. This relationship ties together the two most important aspects of the global economy: energy (the fuel for growth) and the interest rates (the catalyst that powers borrowed money to do things). Next to interest rates, energy and especially oil is the center of the universe not only for the industry but also for the financial markets.

As a trader, you should know this fact that oil price rise often tends to slow down the economy and lower retail sales as well as consumer confidence with lower traffic on the highways. Sometimes the rise in oil prices leads to the increase in interest rates through the bond market and the actions of central banks and the other times the opposite happens. Rise in oil prices if often inflationary.

Some people consider the Peak Oil idea as controversial but this concept is increasingly plausible given the state of the global oil industry. Oil production in countries like Venezuela, Iran and Nigeria has peaked and is going down. Non OPEC sources of oil like North Sea and Mexico are also showing sign of declining production. There has been no major oil well discovery for the last few decades.

Oil production in countries like Venezuela, Iran and Nigeria has peaked and is going down. Non OPEC sources of oil like North Sea and Mexico are also showing sign of declining production. There has been no major oil well discovery for the last few decades. Some people consider the Peak Oil idea as controversial but this concept is increasingly plausible given the state of the global oil industry.

1) The world runs on oil and any threat to the supply of oil often leads to rising prices. 2) Demand fluctuates but supply of oil is finite. As an oil trader your primary goal is to consider the effects of events on the supply of oil and correlate this effect with your charts. - 23221

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