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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Getting to Know Momentum

By Chris Blanchet

When it comes to security price momentum, many people will look at the general trend of a security without fully understanding the technical basis of the term. What Momentum really tells us, however, is whether the trend will continue or reverse. Without technical analysis and events like Momentum, many investors would buy high and sell low.

Defining Momentum Sharing similarities with the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD), Momentum tells investors how much a security's price has changed over a certain time period. Investors with a general understanding of technical analysis methods, and this method in particular, will be able to more accurately determine whether day-to-day changes in price are merely a reflection of a market's systemic behavior or if it is signaling a more permanent trend.

In other words, Momentum allows investors to see the true strength of particular price trend. When relying on multiple technical analysis tools in conjunction with Momentum, investors are better able to understand the true, underlying price trend. Armed with this information, investors can make appropriate changes to their security holdings. Making such important decisions can become difficult at best without the assistance of technical analysis tools.

Calculating Momentum For do-it-yourself investors, completing your own technical analysis can be burdensome thanks to the often complicated mathematical demands needed to pinpoint events and patterns. With Momentum, the math is not all that difficult or involved. Simply, to arrive at a Momentum reading, you take the security's close price and divide it into the close price 10 periods ago, and then multiply it by 100. Or: Close $ /(Close 10 time-periods ago) * 100].

Using Momentum To Make Trade Decisions For help deciding on a Momentum-based trade, the investor must simply determine whether the Momentum value is greater than or less than zero. For amounts higher than zero, the a bullish signal is triggered and for amounts less than zero, a bearish signal is triggered. As a caveat, investors also need to understand that progressively higher low values might suggest a continuation of an existing trend and not a reversal. In most instances, investors should only execute a trade if the price itself turns around (e.g. on a sell, don't sell based on Momentum, but sell when the price begins to fall).

When it comes to trading on technical analysis events, investors should always use other events to confirm or refute positions they are currently considering. Never make a trade based on one technical signal. Momentum can often serve to confirm or refute other events or even the underlying price trend in a particular security.

Since Momentum and many other events triggered by technical analysis rely heavily on mathematical calculations, trading software is recommended for the individual investor. Such software can monitor many different technical trends and some of the more advanced system will make buy and sell recommendations. - 23221

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